In a bird flu pandemic, more people might die from other causes than from bird flu itself.

And I DON’T mean ‘natural’ causes.

Even if you’ve stocked up your home with all the food, water and immune system boosting herbs you’ll need for the next 3 months and you’re all set to sit there and read WAR AND PEACE until the bird flu virus burns itself out — you could still be at great risk.

If you really want to live through the bird flu pandemic, you better have a plan to avoid human germs as well as the bird flu virus.

On a bird flu discussion forum, someone recently posted this advice — stop tell your neighbors you’re storing food and water for the bird flu pandemic. Stop trying to convince them to do the same thing. Make your preparations in secret. Because when there’s no more food at the grocery store, and their kids are hungry, they’re going to remember that you’ve stored food — and they’re going to come knocking at your door.

Truly sad words, but obviously have a truth to them.

You definately must think just as hard about the nature of your neighbors as about the nature of bird flu itself.

You must assume that law and order as we take it for granted now will not exist or will be enforced only sporadically.

Your local police are 95% great people with a strong sense of duty. But some of them will catch bird flu too and some will die from it. Some of them will feel their greatest duty is to protect their own families. Others will stay on the job but will be too stretched and stressed out to keep order on every square block of their territory. This is especially true of rural areas. And you cannot depend on the 911 system, which will likely be overwhelmed. And if they’re no dispatchers to take calls and send messages — and no more ambulance drivers or police cars available — what good is it?

At some point the government may step in and declare martial law, but we don’t have enough soldiers to stand on every street corner in the world.

Many neighborhoods will band together for mutual protection.

Many people will band together so they can loot and kill with impunity.

Some people will surprise you. Some gangbangers will use their guns and street organization to defend the people in their hood.

Some “nice” people will take advantage of the lack of civilized constraints to do some not so nice things.

If your neighbors already know you’re a bird flu kook, it’s too late now to start preparing in secret — and probably it doesn’t matter.

Because if your neighbors get together and decide to go house to house, how’re you going to stop them?

And I don’t mean they’ll be doing it for bad reasons. Neighbors should be keeping tabs on each other to see who’s got bird flu. Who needs food cooked and delivered to their door. Who has small children who need watching?

I can understand the stock up on supplies and lock up the door against the world mentality — I pretty much share it.

But realistically, you’ll stand a better chance of surviving the pandemic if your neighborhood works together — including you.

Because many neighborhoods are going to have to defend themselves against outsiders — and you don’t want to be seen as an outsider who just happens to live on the same block.

You want to be seen as one of the group. As someone smart enough to foresee the pandemic and prepare for it, you should assume a leadership role.

The better you get along with your neighbors now, despite being laughed at for storing food, the more likely you are to keep enough of that food and water for your family.

If your neighbors really are the kind of people you don’t want knocking at your door (and I’ve lived in neighborhoods like that, myself) — then plan now to get out.

You should do what you can to get out of such a neighborhood anyway, bird flu or now bird flu.

The bird flu virus can be compared to a monkey with a typewriter. And that’s why it’s getting more and more dangerous.

You may have heard the old observation that if you give enough monkeys a keyboard, eventually one will — just by random chance — type out the complete works of Shakespeare.

Of course, the odds against one monkey doing this are extremely high. The universe might implode before one monkey could do this.

But give a trillion monkeys a keyboard and maybe one will do it in a few million years. Give as many trillion monkeys as it takes to stretch from here to the next galaxy a keyboard, and chances are one out of those gazillions of monkey will actually type out the complete works of Shakespeare.

I’m comparing monkeys to the bird flu virus or A/H5N1.

The bird flu virus doesn’t have to do anything comparable to a monkey typing out Shakespeare. It just has to mutate or recombine genetic material to become high contagious to people. That’s the start of a pandemic.

For viruses, that’s a lot easier to do than for a monkey to type out the complete works of Shakespeare. There’re many strains of influenza viruses in the world which are highly contagious to people. Most of us have suffered from the flu, caught from a child or coworker, so we know that.

The more A/H5N1 viruses there are this world, the higher the probability that one of them will become highly contagious, human to human, just as ordinary flu is now.

Just as with monkeys — the more viruses, the faster one of them becomes highly contagious.

Yes, A/H5N1 “hid out” in chickens in China and wild ducks from the December 1997 massacre of chickens in Hong Kong until bird flu started killing chickens in South Korea.

It spread through most countries of Southeast Asia without becoming a pandemic. It’s spread into Europe and Africa without becoming a pandemic — so far.

The more people or animals bird flu infects, the more H5N1 viruses there are. Replicating, mutating and recombining with ordinary flu viruses.

Whether it’s chickens in Thailand, cats in Germany or little girls in Turkey . . . the more viruses, the greater the probability it will become highly contagious.

And because it’s now so widespread, there’s little chance that it will be contained soon. Scientists expect it to land in the New World by autumn.

It’s out of control and spreading fast.

How long before one out of those many countless trillions of viruses becomes highly contagious?

I wanted to title this article, “How to Make Money From the Bird Flu Pandemic,” but the more I think about it, the more I think trying to outguess events will just be too risky.

I’m sure that some people and companies will make a bird flu bet that pays off. They’ll buy stock in Roche or the companies that just got contracts from the United States government to make bird flu vaccines or in medical supplies or in some other way will make a killing.

But I think there’re too many unknown factors.

Will the virus ever become contagious to people? If so, will it retain its high mortality rate? Will it be quickly contained or will it spread?

Prices of goods and services rise and fall in relation to supply and demand. That’s basic economics.

The trouble is, depending on the answers to those questions and a host of other factors there will be numerous possibilities.

Commodities rose in price during the 1918 flu pandemic. Possibly scared Americans would rush to buy oranges in the mistaken belief they contain enough Vitamin C to protect them from bird flu. Or maybe they’ll be smarter.

Coffee is likely to be in short supply. We grow oranges in America but coffee must come from South America and Africa, two continents that’ll be hard hit by bird flu. Coffee futures would likely rise a lot. But if you buy and sell at the wrong time, you could still lose a lot of money.

Labor will be in short supply — but demand will also go down as all but essential businesses close down for the duration. Even if you’re a doctor or nurse, you may find yourself drafted for bird flu duty, not given a choice to bargain for more money.

Gold will no doubt spike up, as it always does during hard times — but at some point gold holders will want to sell some to raise money for food, and then the price of gold could collapse. Demand for gold jewelry would plummet during and after the pandemic.

I’ve seen people predict gasoline going up to $7 a gallon, but I think the pandemic could drop the price dramatically, because demand will drop.

People will not be driving to school or to work or to recreation or shopping malls. They’ll stay home as much as possible. Dead and sick drivers don’t buy gasoline. All trucks will stop running except those carrying food, water and medicines. All nonessential airplane travel will stop.

Currencies are commodities too, and intimately linked to politics. I have not see anyone else besides myself point out that a serious bird flu pandemic would redraw the political and perhaps the geographical map of the world.

If masses of people in a country are upset both by bird flu deaths and resulting economic shortages, they might well overturn their leadership. That means, the old money may become worthless. That means you should stock up on gold now.

Although I expect law and order challenges to occur in the U.S., I think the U.S. government will outlive bird flu. Same with Japan and most countries in Western Europe — though the massive number of immigrants from Muslim countries may pose more of a security hazard than we can guess, making me wonder about countries whose stability I’d have been certain of twenty years ago, such as France and Germany.

But could Gloria Magcapal continue to keep a lid on her enemies in The Philippines? Could China continue to repress its entire countryside and avoid splitting into sections? Could India, which has an extremely large number of ethnic minorities? Could the House of Sahd continue to control the government of Saudi Arabia?

Not all those countries would have violent governmental changes, but some would.

So I think the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, euro, Swiss franc and yen will retain high value. I can’t say how they’ll move in relation to each other, but they’ll all likely retain a store of value.

Cash in strong currencies will be king in developed countries. Keep it safe — in government bonds.

Gold will be the winner in developing countries. And bank accounts in stable developed countries.

Oh, I just took it for granted that you understand that in the event of a serious pandemic stock markets around the world will scrape bottom.

In other bird flu news The Times this week published an article relating a proposal from flu experts David Fedson, Peter Dunnill and Susan Chu that the use of common cholesterol-lowering medicines against flu be investigated.

A highly persistent chemical, dioxin can take more than 15 years to degrade to half its original concentration. If released into the local water supplies—for example, ponds and rivers—it can accumulate in fish.

Bird flu virus is highly serious, just like the Swine Flu H1N1 virus is. Commonly known as Avian Flu, it is transmitted by coming into contact with another person who has it, or else by going into an area where there has been an outbreak of this virus.

The avian flu is a specific bird condition that affects all kind of birds but wild ones seem to be more resistant and carry the virus without showing any obvious signs.

Poultry is most sensitive to the virus and develop the disease; mild cases evolve with respiratory symptoms, low egg production ruffled feathers.

The official scientific name for the bird flu virus is H5N1. All flu viruses have an H number and an N number. The H refers to hemagglutinin, which is a protein that is responsible for binding the virus to the cell that is being infected.

Humans appear to become infected with the virus not by eating infected poultry, but by contacting infected matter or preparing them for consumption.

Symptoms Of Bird Flu

The symptoms of the flu are like any other flu. The reason it is called bird flu is that the flu spreads from the birds to the human beings. One used to suffer from a sore throat and then followed by body pains.

Bird flu is creating a wide spread pandemic in the South East Asian countries. More so, the possibility of it being spread to other parts of the world cannot be neglected. The virus responsible for more than hundreds of deaths has been detected as the H5N1 virus, a subtype of Influenza-A virus. This has been the most deadly bird flu virus till date, since the bird flu generally doesn’t attack human beings.

How to be sure that is bird flu and not any other common flu?

After the exposure in 3-7 days the symptoms develop. By the time patients get to the hospital it is too late to follow a treatment with antiviral agents.

The most susceptible of Bird Flu are domestic poultry but all species of birds are believed to be sensitive to the disease. Wild birds though are more resistant to H5N1. Chickens and turkeys are most susceptible.

Human cases of avian flu symptoms have been reported in many countries in Asia and the Middle East, but most have occurred in small villages and outlying areas of Indonesia and Vietnam. Most confirmed cases of avian flu symptoms in humans resulted from contact with infected domesticated birds or contact with surfaces contaminated by the ***** and fluids from infected birds.

Treatments

Infection determines many symptoms in wild and domesticated birds from mild illnesses to highly contagious and severe epidemics.

Bird flu virus is highly serious, just like the Swine Flu H1N1 virus is. Commonly known as Avian Flu, it is transmitted by coming into contact with another person who has it, or else by going into an area where there has been an outbreak of this virus.

The H5N1 strain of the flu, also called the Asian bird flu because it recently was detected in Asia, has a small risk level for human beings because it cannot be transmitted from one human being to another.

A human being can only be infected from direct contact with a sick animal. It is possible that this could change and that the strain could evolve into a virus that can be transferred from one human to another. But this is not the case now.

Bird flu (or Avian flu) is currently being used to describe the influenza virus, H5N1, which is producing a highly contagious and rapidly fatal disease, leading to severe epidemics in birds.

Bird flu is caused by different subtypes of influenza A virus affecting chickens, ducks and other birds Viruses which cause mild disease can mutate into viruses that can cause serious disease (highly pathogenic).

The current bird flu strain is immune to older flu drugs. However, the drug remains sensitive to the newer flu drugs Tamiflu and Relenza. However, supplies remain short.

Unfortunately there’s only one plant making Tamiflu – and the U.S. isn’t the only country desperately trying to build up a stockpile. Other countries, such as Britain, have also started stockpiling the drug.

There are certain treatments available for influenza. They are called antiviral medicines. These treatments do not have the ability to cure the virus but can reduce the severity and symptoms of influenza by stopping the spreading of the influenza viruses.

Some effective treatments can reduce the duration of the illness caused by influenza and improve health speedily.

If you experience symptoms of influenza virus, you should take treatment within 48 hours of first observable signs. Tamiflu medication helps in both treatment and prevention of influenza virus infection.

When you take Tamiflu medication within two days of experiencing first symptoms of influenza virus, oseltamivir phosphate, which is the main ingredient in this drug, works to stop the flu virus from spreading inside the body.

http://www.google.com

One extremely huge security risk that would come from a bird flu pandemic is nuclear power plants.

Right now, about 17% of the world’s electricity is produced by nuclear power plants.

There’re over 400 nuclear power plants currently in operation around the world — over 100 of them in the United States alone.

The total varies a lot by country. France relies on nuclear power more than any other country — using nuclear power to generate 75% of the country’s electricity.

The United States currently gets about 15% of its electricity from nuclear power. That is an overall percentage. Your area may be much higher or lower.

Although the construction of nuclear power plants has stopped in the United States and almost all of Europe, due to concerns about the safety of these plants and of what to do with the nuclear waste generated by them, it’s continuing in Asia and some other areas.

Disclaimer: I was a anti-nuke activist at one time. I worked extensively on an electoral petition drive which would have banned the operation of nuclear power plants in the state of Missouri until there was a safe, permanant storage facility for nuclear waste. That was 1980, not a good election to promote anything at all “liberal,” so our proposal failed to pass.

But it’s possible we played at least a small part in Union Electric’s decision to cancel their proposed Calloway II nuclear power plant.

I used to be completely proud of that. Now, I’m not so sure. I haven’t completely turned around on this issue, as I have on so many I used to be a leftwing radical on. I recognize the world’s great need for electricity. However, all the nuclear waste bothers me. After all the half-life of plutonium is 250,000 years.

Of course, the greatest potential danger from a nuclear power plant is the meltdown of its core.

The heart of a nuclear reactor is the core where uranium enriched with U-235 sits.

The U-235 is split, making it give off two or three neutrons. If these neutrons strike other U-235 atoms, then they are split and the nuclear fission reaction continues as long as there’re atoms of U-235.

This fission reaction gives off heat, which is used to heat water to steam, which turns a turbine which creates electricity.

So nuclear power is basically just a fancy way to boil water.

If, on average, less than one neutron hits another U-235 atom, then the reaction is called sub-critical and the reaction will die out.

If, on average, one neutron hits one other U-235 atom, then the reaction is called critical and the reaction will continue. Nuclear power plants maintain this level to generate a stable amount of heat to run the turbine.

If, on average, one neutron hits more than one other U-235, then the reaction is called supercritical.

This is where it gets dangerous. Contrary to what some fear, the core of a nuclear reactor can’t go off like an atomic bomb — the U-235 is not that much enriched. The fission reaction can’t become supercritical fast enough to explode.

However, it can continue to heat up until the physical structure melts down and forms a superdense, superheavy ball. So heavy and dense that theground is not strong enough to hold it, so it falls through the soil of the Earth. In theory, it could go to the core of the planet and keep on until it reaches the opposite side.

Since the opposite side of the United States is China, we call this this the China Syndrome.

This would release a tremendous amount of radioactivity. If you watch the movie The China Syndrome you’ll hear an expert say it would render an area the size of Pennsylvania uninhabitable for eons.

The focus is usually on the area surrounding the site of the former nuclear power plant, but I think that the hole left on the other side of the planet would also release a lot of radioactivity.

I don’t know whether anybody’s ever asked geologists how sending a superdense ball through the core of the planet would affect its internal structure. Probably it would create at least some instability and cause volcanos and earthquakes.

A nuclear reactor meltdown is something no sane person wants to happen.

Unfortunately, there are some insane people out there — including many islamo-fascists who believe that their religion justifies any actions which kills infidels. As a note left by one of the Spanish train bombers reads: “You love life. We love death.”

Therefore, any country containing nuclear power plants must make protecting them their number one priority during a serious bird flu pandemic.

They must protect against accidental error due to a shortage of trained personnel. Plus they must protect against deliberate damage from a terrorist group taking advantage of the bird flu pandemic.

The level of the reaction in the core is adjusted by using control rods that absorb neutrons. If the fission reaction gets too strong, the people operating the plants must insert enough control rods to reduce it. Or stop it when necessary.

Plus, water is used to keep the core cool.

One danger will be that the plant is not properly taken care of, due to death and illness of employees.

Therefore, all nuclear power plant personnel should be kept isolated from the rest of the population. If they’ve possibly been exposed to bird flu, if possible they should remain in a quarantine for at least 5 days to make sure they’re not infected, before being in contact with the other people.

They should also receive all available medical care. They should have their own doctor and nurse and supply of antiviral medicines and nutritional supplements.

This includes nuclear plant security guards.

In fact, extra guards should be sent to watch over nuclear power plants to prevent terrorists attacks. Even if they must come from military units.

It might be impossible to quarantine these new security guards, so shifts should be kept separated from each other to reduce the chances that one of them will spread bird flu to others.

The military unit surrounding the power plant should remain on the perimeter so there’s no chance they spread an avian flu infection to either the regular plant guards or other plant workers.

If nuclear power plant personnel do start coming down with bird flu or feel that they cannot maintain a critical reaction at a safe level, for any reason — they should have orders to shut the reactor down with control rods to prevent a meltdown.

Another weak point is that the plant must be supplied with enough water to keep the core cool. Therefore, it’s critical that this source of water be safeguarded against problems caused either by bird flu death/illness or terrorists.

It would also be a good idea to patrol the air space above the power plant. If well constructed, they should be strong enough to withstand a direct hit from a crashed airplane, but who wants to depend on that?

Shipments of nuclear fuel to the power plant should be suspended if at all possible.

Shipments of nuclear waste from the power plant should certainly be suspended for the duration of the bird flu pandemic.

Although it is desirable to keep the power plant generating electricity throughout the pandemic, it may be pointless. That’s because shortage of electric utility personnel during the pandemic could create massive electrical shortages throughout the grids anyway.

If the power plant generates electricity but it doesn’t benefit anyone because too many wires are down and can’t be repaired, it’s smarter to just turn the plant down as far as possible — and the people working there should just wait out the pandemic.

During a bird flu pandemic, protecting nuclear power plants must be a country’s number one priority.

The H5N1 virus pandemic will kill many people, but certainly not everybody. And it will go away within 3 to 12 months.

A nuclear power plant will kill everybody within many miles, and radiation will continue as a health hazard for an uncountable number of generations.