The bird flu virus can be compared to a monkey with a typewriter. And that’s why it’s getting more and more dangerous.

You may have heard the old observation that if you give enough monkeys a keyboard, eventually one will — just by random chance — type out the complete works of Shakespeare.

Of course, the odds against one monkey doing this are extremely high. The universe might implode before one monkey could do this.

But give a trillion monkeys a keyboard and maybe one will do it in a few million years. Give as many trillion monkeys as it takes to stretch from here to the next galaxy a keyboard, and chances are one out of those gazillions of monkey will actually type out the complete works of Shakespeare.

I’m comparing monkeys to the bird flu virus or A/H5N1.

The bird flu virus doesn’t have to do anything comparable to a monkey typing out Shakespeare. It just has to mutate or recombine genetic material to become high contagious to people. That’s the start of a pandemic.

For viruses, that’s a lot easier to do than for a monkey to type out the complete works of Shakespeare. There’re many strains of influenza viruses in the world which are highly contagious to people. Most of us have suffered from the flu, caught from a child or coworker, so we know that.

The more A/H5N1 viruses there are this world, the higher the probability that one of them will become highly contagious, human to human, just as ordinary flu is now.

Just as with monkeys — the more viruses, the faster one of them becomes highly contagious.

Yes, A/H5N1 “hid out” in chickens in China and wild ducks from the December 1997 massacre of chickens in Hong Kong until bird flu started killing chickens in South Korea.

It spread through most countries of Southeast Asia without becoming a pandemic. It’s spread into Europe and Africa without becoming a pandemic — so far.

The more people or animals bird flu infects, the more H5N1 viruses there are. Replicating, mutating and recombining with ordinary flu viruses.

Whether it’s chickens in Thailand, cats in Germany or little girls in Turkey . . . the more viruses, the greater the probability it will become highly contagious.

And because it’s now so widespread, there’s little chance that it will be contained soon. Scientists expect it to land in the New World by autumn.

It’s out of control and spreading fast.

How long before one out of those many countless trillions of viruses becomes highly contagious?

I wanted to title this article, “How to Make Money From the Bird Flu Pandemic,” but the more I think about it, the more I think trying to outguess events will just be too risky.

I’m sure that some people and companies will make a bird flu bet that pays off. They’ll buy stock in Roche or the companies that just got contracts from the United States government to make bird flu vaccines or in medical supplies or in some other way will make a killing.

But I think there’re too many unknown factors.

Will the virus ever become contagious to people? If so, will it retain its high mortality rate? Will it be quickly contained or will it spread?

Prices of goods and services rise and fall in relation to supply and demand. That’s basic economics.

The trouble is, depending on the answers to those questions and a host of other factors there will be numerous possibilities.

Commodities rose in price during the 1918 flu pandemic. Possibly scared Americans would rush to buy oranges in the mistaken belief they contain enough Vitamin C to protect them from bird flu. Or maybe they’ll be smarter.

Coffee is likely to be in short supply. We grow oranges in America but coffee must come from South America and Africa, two continents that’ll be hard hit by bird flu. Coffee futures would likely rise a lot. But if you buy and sell at the wrong time, you could still lose a lot of money.

Labor will be in short supply — but demand will also go down as all but essential businesses close down for the duration. Even if you’re a doctor or nurse, you may find yourself drafted for bird flu duty, not given a choice to bargain for more money.

Gold will no doubt spike up, as it always does during hard times — but at some point gold holders will want to sell some to raise money for food, and then the price of gold could collapse. Demand for gold jewelry would plummet during and after the pandemic.

I’ve seen people predict gasoline going up to $7 a gallon, but I think the pandemic could drop the price dramatically, because demand will drop.

People will not be driving to school or to work or to recreation or shopping malls. They’ll stay home as much as possible. Dead and sick drivers don’t buy gasoline. All trucks will stop running except those carrying food, water and medicines. All nonessential airplane travel will stop.

Currencies are commodities too, and intimately linked to politics. I have not see anyone else besides myself point out that a serious bird flu pandemic would redraw the political and perhaps the geographical map of the world.

If masses of people in a country are upset both by bird flu deaths and resulting economic shortages, they might well overturn their leadership. That means, the old money may become worthless. That means you should stock up on gold now.

Although I expect law and order challenges to occur in the U.S., I think the U.S. government will outlive bird flu. Same with Japan and most countries in Western Europe — though the massive number of immigrants from Muslim countries may pose more of a security hazard than we can guess, making me wonder about countries whose stability I’d have been certain of twenty years ago, such as France and Germany.

But could Gloria Magcapal continue to keep a lid on her enemies in The Philippines? Could China continue to repress its entire countryside and avoid splitting into sections? Could India, which has an extremely large number of ethnic minorities? Could the House of Sahd continue to control the government of Saudi Arabia?

Not all those countries would have violent governmental changes, but some would.

So I think the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, euro, Swiss franc and yen will retain high value. I can’t say how they’ll move in relation to each other, but they’ll all likely retain a store of value.

Cash in strong currencies will be king in developed countries. Keep it safe — in government bonds.

Gold will be the winner in developing countries. And bank accounts in stable developed countries.

Oh, I just took it for granted that you understand that in the event of a serious pandemic stock markets around the world will scrape bottom.

It is important to understand the result of a bird flu pandemic so that if the time comes, people will be enlightened to the knowledge of its overall effects. Also a country will be able to recover faster and the affect on the economy will not be as severe.

So What Would The Result Be If A Bird Flu Pandemic Did Happen To Occur?

Well firstly the worst impact would be a catastrophic loss of life. If the disease was not controlled immediately, the death count could grow into the thousands. Another possibility is that the spread could become uncontrollable, meaning that it will have become too widespread to be stopped. Although this is an unlikely event, it is still a possibility and people should make measures to reduce the likelihood of this occurring. In fact it has occurred to an extent in the past. In 1918 pandemic struck that caused the death of over 50 million people worldwide. It is important to note however that in that day and age, medicine was nowhere near as sophisticated as it is today.

Another impact, although less important, is the need to destroy poultry. Previous bird flu pandemics have seen the destruction of millions of poultry and the bankrupsy of a great number of poultry distributors. The first order that a government gives is to destroy most if not all poultry in the country so that they can quickly start to control the pandemic. This can have a severe impact on a nations economy.

How Should We Prepare For A Bird Flu Pandemic?

The best way to prepare for a pandemic is to do some research and learn about its affects(which is what you are doing now!) Secondly you need to write down a plan and response strategy so that when the time comes, you have a system that will prepare you for such an event. This will include things such as going down and picking up the kids from school and bringing them home. Also you will want to take note of what poultry products you have eaten in the last week. It is unlikely that bird flu will affect every chicken distributor in the country, but it’s better to be on the safe side.

Probably the most important rule that everyone should take note of is to not panic when a bird flu pandemic strikes. Panic only causes confusion, which then leads to chaos, which then leads to a catastrophe. If you have a plan with a series of steps that must be followed in the event of a pandemic then you have nothing to worry about.

I believe that a bird flu pandemic is quite possible and that people should prepare for it.

I devote a lot of time to thinking and writing about how to protect yourself and your family from bird flu.

I believe that my motivation — and the motivation of others sounding the alarm and the many people around the world who are working to prepare for a contagious form of bird flu is positive. We want to make sure that a bird flu pandemic kills as few people as possible.

However, people are people and few of us are 100% saints.

Therefore, although it dismays me, it doesn’t surprise me that some people display a less pleasant side of human nature.

None of us are immune. I’ll admit that I have a list of people whom I’d like to die from bird flu. I mean, I don’t really want anybody to die, but if SOMEBODY has to — let it be them. A few on my list are in my personal life.

Others I’d really like to see die from bird flu are all the enemies of freedom. That’s all terrorists and those supporting and encouraging them. Not to mention dictators who threaten world peace such as the head of North Korea. And although he’s not as dangerous, I’d be happy to see Fidel Castro go.

However, I realize that if a bird flu pandemic actually happens, the virus doesn’t care anything about the nature of its victims. H5N1 would just as soon infect an innocent baby as a terrorist planning to set off a nuclear bomb. And the children of Iran would be far more at risk than its fanatically dangerous president.

Yet I know that there’re many people who love to read post-apocolyptic science fiction because they love to fantasize about solving the problems of today by starting over. Some of them believe they’d be better off by living in a world where might made right. And I remember one feminist SF fan telling me that she enjoyed imagining that if the world had to stay over from scratch that women could make sure the patriarchy was eliminated.

I was not surprised to read in a bird flu forum recently that the poster believed that it was good that bird flu would eliminate a lot of people, because the world was overpopulated.

A professor nicknamed Dr. Doom recently acquired some notoriety by expressing much the same sentiment in a speech to some scientists. According to him, people are no better than bacteria. He actually said that he hoped a terrorist would spread Ebola to kill 90% of the human race. But “bird flu would work too.” The audience actually applauded him.

One problem here is that we are concerned for ourselves and our loved ones, and the other 6.5 billion people are meaningless to us. However, most everybody is loved and valued by their own friends and family. It’s easy to kill off 5 or 6 billion faceless numbers, but people who have faces, personalities and emotions — especially children — that’s a lot different.

It’s also easy to believe that you are one of the protected ones who will survive the bird flu pandemic. Yet Americans are no more virus-proof than Vietnamese children. If the Earth wants to get rid of people, why not you too?

Then there’re the religious crazies. When bird flu was first found in Israel, an extremist Jew said that was God’s punishment for removing the settlers from the Palestinian territories and a Palestinian Muslim cleric said it was God’s punishment of Israel for being Jewish.

Since bird flu has so far infected countries and people who are: Buddhist, Muslim, Hindu, Jewish, officially atheistic, unofficially Taoist and Christian — I don’t think the virus cares about religion.

So all I ask — and I know that when emotions, especially fear, run high this is difficult — is to recognize the more hateful emotions within you, and then remember that our real enemy is the H5N1 virus.

Why?

During a bird pandemic you should remain as isolated from everybody outside your family as possible. Therefore, you should shop only for necessities: food, water, fuel and medicine.

Where?

Therefore, you should go only to a supermarket, drug store, gas station, convenience store or discount store.

A bird flu pandemic is not the time to buy furniture, clothes, electronic toys or tools. It’s not a good time to hang out at the mall.

When?

Go during the slowest periods possible, so you will be exposed to as few people as possible. Check out your area to learn what stores stay open 24 hours a day. Which ones are open until late at night? Or start early in the morning?

Go at the time you’ll most likely be the only one in the store except for a few employees.

How?

Gasoline may be in limited supply or totally out of stock. So you should not drive far.

Of course, you must make trade offs. If there’s a Wal-Mart open all night but it’s 3 miles away, that’s worth driving to at 4 AM so you’ll be alone except for the cashiers and the floor cleaners. However, driving to a store twenty miles away would use up too much gasoline.

Also, if you’re going to walk to the store to save gasoline, do so only during the day. Yes, you may be exposed to more people, but they’re less likely to rob you or worse. During a bird flu pandemic you cannot depend on law and order, so don’t go out after dark unless you are in your car.

What?

Bottled water

Canned vegetables

Canned fruit

Sauerkraut — good for encouraging growth of favorable bacteria in you, to discourage growth of H5N1. If you’re in Asia, substitute Kim Chi.

Hand operated can openers

Garlic

Onions

Pre-cooked meats

Raw meat only for as long as you have electricity and/or gas to cook it with.

Fresh vegetables

Fresh fruit

Horseradish

Ginger root

Dried meat

Cheese — low-fat preferred

Eggs

Fresh milk

Canned and dry milk

Canned fish

Canned meat

Quality vitamins and supplements, especially Vitamin C, selenium, zinc, Omega-3, lysine, beta glucan, Vitamin E, beta-carotene, Vitamin Bs, super green foods containing chlorophyl, ginseng, reservatrol, magnesium, DHEA, quercetin, bioflavanoids

Yogurt

Soap

Alcohol wipes

Antiseptic hand lotions

Propane

Kerosene

First aid supplies, including tea tree oil and NuSkin

Cold packs

Vaporizers

Toothpaste, toothbrushes, shampoos — all personal care items

Toilet paper and diapers

Household soaps and detergents

Magazines and paperback books to read

Leave behind:

Gimmicks herbs that don’t increase your immune system functioning

Sugar and all sweet snacks and candy

Bread

Rice

Spaghetti and all noodles and pastas

Cigarettes

Alcohol

Fruit juices

Soft drinks

Reduce your risk of catching bird flu and strengthen your immune system to survive in case you do catch it.

Anything that increases your risk of catching bird flu is bad, as is anything that weakens your immune system.

A bird flu pandemic is not the time to be undisciplined and self-indulgent.

The pandemic is out of your personal control — but you increases your odds of surviving by the actions you take.